“THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER”

ARTICLE 4

“THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER”

BY SHYAM SARAN (FORMER FOREIGN SECRETARY),

A. OPENING FRAME: A WORLD IN TRANSITION AND DISORDER

1) “The centre cannot hold” — the inflection point thesis

• Uses W.B. Yeats (“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold…”) to signal:
• • Breakdown of the post-1945 international order.
  • Weakening of institutions, norms, and predictability.
  • Entry into a prolonged phase of systemic transition.
• Message: This is not routine turbulence; it is a historical turning point.

2) Post-1945 order is crumbling; transition resembles the inter-war danger zone

• Compares current moment to 1919–1939:
• • Institutions weakened.
  • Great powers abandon restraint.
  • Norms collapse accelerates conflict risk.
• League of Nations cited as warning:
• • Could not restrain strong.
  • Could not protect weak.
  • Ended in systemic breakdown (WWII).